UK could run out of childminders by 2033, experts warn

The data highlighted a troubling trend: rural areas have 31% fewer childcare places and 29% fewer Ofsted-rated "good" options compared to cities and town centres.

Families living in deprived areas are also struggling, with 32% fewer childcare places per child and 25% fewer rated as "good" compared to those in wealthier areas.

The situation is particularly dire in Walsall, West Midlands, which the report identifies as the local authority with the lowest childcare provision in England. Shockingly, three in four children in Walsall have poor access to childcare services.

The IPPR report reveals a stark divide in the use of formal childcare between income groups. While 73% of the highest-earning households rely on formal childcare, only a third of the poorest families do so. The gap extends to professions too: more than two-thirds of parents in professional jobs, such as doctors and architects, use formal childcare, compared to less than half of parents in lower-paid roles, such as cleaners and care workers.

A key factor driving the crisis is the rapid decline in the number of childminders. According to the IPPR, the profession is losing around 3,000 childminders annually. At this rate, there could be none left by 2033.

Childminders play a crucial role, particularly for children under three, alongside nurseries. However, challenges like low pay, high stress, and a lack of support are causing many to leave the profession.

Additionally, the number of children attending primary school nurseries has dropped significantly—by the equivalent of 42,000 children—since 2015/16.

This year, the UK Government expanded free childcare to include 15 hours a week for working parents of children aged nine months and older. While the move has been welcomed, experts argue it’s not enough to solve the systemic issues.

Ruth Talbot, policy and advocacy adviser at Save the Children UK, stresses that while the changes are a step in the right direction, “major reforms are still needed to fix the system.”

She highlights the need for better support for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), suggesting that the standard two-year-old health checks could unlock essential funding. Talbot also proposes creating local not-for-profit childcare trusts to prioritise children from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Jodie Reed, associate fellow at the IPPR, suggests the UK has an opportunity to overhaul its childcare model, making it more like the public-led school system.

“National and local governments should play a much more proactive role in addressing problems in the market,” Reed says. “We need a real childcare guarantee for every child.”

Read more:

• Parents risk losing free childcare as nursery closures loom
• Disadvantaged children risk being left out of free childcare, say UK charities
• Government to address nursery staff shortages before expanding childcare services